Monday, June 12, 2006

The class of OneMBA 06 graduates

Phew! I graduated last weekend. If I have ever been happy and sad at the same time, that was it. A very emotional moment for the class. The OneMBA program at UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business school has exceed all of my expectations and than some. The course work was grueling yet rewarding. The learning from teamwork was phenomenal. Some of the most awesome people,including faculty, I have ever met in my life.

While there are a lot of good schools with good programs, a sign of a great program is that it changes you as a person. You never look at things the same way again, personal and professional. That I believe differentiates OneMBA from other programs. Nothing comes closer. Period!

The class of 06, third class since its inception, was the largest and we formed an amazing network around the world. The world has become a lot more personal for me, knowing that my friends and colleagues live all around. Never realized that an MBA would make me such a concerned citizen of the world.

In last two years I have studied in 7 countries, met Nobel Laureate Lech Walesa and Luis Ernesto Derbez, Mexico’s Minister of foreign affairs, gained deep insights into inner working of globalization, and most importantly redefined myself. We now have a network of 250 or so executives around the world who have graduated from the OneMBA program. So, what do you plan to do with your two years?

Saturday, March 04, 2006

Continuing on M&A....

Here is a very good example on M&A gone terribly bad. It was consumated in the hay days of mid 90s when IT companies were flushed with cash and everybody dreamt big. Big enough to lose focus. It must be noted that EDS pioneered the outsourcing concept and by any measure was a great company. What happened? Technology changed and datacenters become less expensive and information more distributed. Anyway...I digress. So EDS goes and buy (oops..merges with AT Kearney, an elite consulting company). ATK played in a very different play ground than EDS was used to playing. Two different business models and two different industries. You can read in the articles below (links) to see what happened..the end result was a management buyout of ATK by its officiers. This is where the A in M&A went bad. Instead of adopting a straightforward strategy of completely assimilating ATK into EDS, it continued to dilly-dally. There would be no certainty that this complete assimilation would have worked either. The officers and principals of ATK would be left in a heart beat. Which is what happened anyway....

I have a first hand experience of the resentment ATK and senior EDSers had. I was very new to EDS than and didn't have much history. The resentment continued to fester....the culture never got integrated and merger went bad. I guess the deal makers than (A)greed to merger instead of EDS going and flatout (A)cquiring ATK. Delusions of grandeur. Dick Brown was a good leader per my personal experience. He had some really good qualities, learning from him, it continues to serve me well. I must clarify I was a frontline grunt and only occassionally communicated with him. Looking back, this deal was not fair to seasoned hardworking EDSers as well. They just didn't understand how ATK could be treated so specially and paid so handsomely.

M&A sounds fantastic but learning from two experiences, it seldom works the way its envisioned. Reverse synergies are utterly underestimated for the most part and primary reason for that is under appreciation of the effort it takes to change the culture. On the other hand Synergies are over estimated. Hey, if I were making a big deal, I wouldn't want to not dream big either. Its human nature. So if you are going to grow by Acquisition, do just that. Acquire. You approach the deal as a Merger and you will be sorry to findout that when you say "I love you", the beast will not turn into a handsome prince. Acquire, if you must, but be brutally honest about it.:
  • Approach it from a conqueror's perspective. Big must buy small.
  • If you integrate, do so vertically. Unless you are Jack Welch, you will have an incredibly hard time trying to manage a conglomorate culture.
  • Treat people nicely and let them go respectfully. Unless you are willing to spend 3 years worth of their salary on them for doing nothing but integrating culturally and becoming one of you.
Here are the links to EDS-ATK story:

AT Kearney completes management buyout:

http://www.atkearney.com/main.taf?p=1,5,1,173

EDS, ex-Kearney chief settle suits:

http://chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?id=11444&base=11447


EDS concludes sale of AT Kearny:

http://www.eds.com/news/news.aspx?news_id=2808

EDS AT Kearny family feud:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_06/b3819085.htm


This concludes my post on M&A (for now...). Sorry it took a bit to elaborate. The class on M&A was a real eye opener. If you plan to get an MBA someday, do take a class on M&A.

Cheerios!

Friday, January 27, 2006

Mergers and Acquiescence

"Mergers are the (unusually) unintentional combinations of unrelated subjects spliced together in disturbing ways"

Where does the above definition come from you wonder? Before I tell you that, let me tell you that things we covered in the class last weekend between Strategy and M&A classes pretty much sums it up.

It was ironic that I would find the above definition in a very unusal place with a completely different context and yet have it mean the (almost) same. If I am to believe those who don't believe in M&A. The definition was in "Digital SLR Cameras & Photography for Dummies" by David D. Busch.

Over the next few days I will update this space with more information on M&A with references to Economics and Strategy.

Please stay tuned....meanwhile think about why I would use the term "Acquiescence" instead of Acquisitions.

Some interesting links for you on this subject:

http://www.atkearney.com/shared_res/pdf/SLarticle_perry_due_diligence.pdf
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2006/nf20060127_9242_db039.htm

Monday, November 21, 2005

In the company of the Cool

Phew! Done with Macro, Corporate Finance, Accounting, Marketing, and Technology and just returned from the 3rd residency in Latin America. It was such a great experience. Mexico delivered far more than Brasil for me. In part it has to do with the fact that I had set my expectations lower for Mexico and higher for Brasil and it turned out to be the reverse. I guess all the stories you hear builds an image in your head that is frequently inconsistent with the reality on the ground. Lesson #1: World is a web of misinformation. One must experience things first-hand to appreciate the intricacy of the situation.

We had two very senior officials from the Mexican govt address us. Mr. Alejandro Dieck, the Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Economy and Mr. Luis Ernesto Derbez Bautista, the Minster of Foreign Affairs of Mexico. Both of these gentlemen are US educated Economists.

Two key takeaways:

Alejandro Dieck: Mexicans are more worried about who the next Minster of Treasury will be than the next president of Mexico. Apparently there are only 5 people in the country of 104 million that are qualified for that job. Scary!

Luis Derbez: He would advise the Mexican entrepreneurs to seek fortunes wherever they find even if its not in Mexico. He would prefer that their skills and talents continue to develop further so he can invite them back when Mexico is ready to offer them opportunities. Now ain't that interesting.....

Additionally, we had the opportunity to hear Mr. Hector Medina Aguiar, Executive VP Planning and Finance of Cemex, the 3rd largest cement company in the world. It was very interesting to hear how Cemex used (and continues to use) IT strategically to grow and drive performance.

This experience was as cool as having Nobel Laureate Lech Walesa, ex-President of Poland, address us during the European Residency. The experience of listening to the US mission chief to Iraq, Mr. Lorenzo Perez, during the opening residency in DC pales in comparison in my humble opinion.

Okay. Enough of this bigwig stuff....

Monterrey is a very industrial town. The hotel Qunita Real was awesome and service a la grand. It can be easily mistaken for a dusty south Texan city. The Grand Hyatt hotel in Sao Paulo is very contemporary and had a great service too! But I feel I was cheated by the staff at the front desk. I bought a 300 min/R$30 calling card that I was told would cost me additional R$5 per call from the hotel room. The 800 number didn't work so I was advised by the staff at front desk to use 880 instead but no additional information provided on what it would cost me. I got a huge bill (approximately R$450) during the checkout for calling overseas in addition to using the calling card minutes. The manager would not budge. I told them that I wouldn't sign the credit card receipt and authorize the charges so I can dispute the charges on my Diners Club. I did pay for the bar bill separately. A buddy of mine got dinged for around R$850 for the same reason. He too had the calling card.

Anyway, it was great to see everybody again. This time I tried to hang out with my Asian and European colleagues and get to know them a little better. We have a new member join the OneMBA team but let me introduce you to some of the incredible participants from my global class. I will attempt to introduce others in postings later...

Joyce, from the China class, had enrolled in the 04 program but took a leave of absence to work in Japan for 2 years. She plans to finish her MBA with us now. She got her CPA certification from Illinois and has extensive experience with auditing and Financial management in very senior positions in Asia. Now she works for equivalent of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of US in Hong Kong. She sounded so excited to be back on the wagon, so to speak.

From RSM I was able to spend some time with Iryna (Ukraine) and Marina (Russia). I was amazed at how driven and confident they are. Iryna is the COO of Ukrproduct Group (UPG), found on the web at http://www.ukrproduct.com/index.php?lang=3 and listed on the London Stock Exchange this year with much fanfare. Marina is a Financial Controller in Moscow. She represents the young ambitious generation that is increasingly mobile and dedicated to professional growth. Her family lives in Siberia.

Dawn Crosby-Maqueda (UNC) is a Contracts Negotiator for the Federal Civilian Sector at IBM. She has traveled extensively and was in peace corp. She is married and has a very cute daughter. Apparently she is among the select few at IBM who know how to bid for a federal contract. Raquel Baez (UNC) is the Sourcing Manager at the Fruit of the Loom and travels all around the world. She is from Dominican Republic. These two women though very different in personality, and may be quite opposite, personify the potent combination of trustworthiness, openness, smarts, passion, drive, and plain old fashioned hardwork. And both of them have a great personality. Dawn is such a hoot. I love her.

Among some of the interesting guys Terry Deas (UNC) and Tim O'Brien (UNC) are pretty cool. Terry was a Diversity Manager at HP and Tim a Manager of the New Business Development in emerging markets works for the Pragma corporation. He has quite a bit of experience working in Ukraine. Terry, a very polite, gentle, and ethically driven, is the kind of person you always enjoy talking with. He can very calmly make a point and debate without getting worked up. World is rather black and white place for him. There are things you do and things you don't. No dillydallying. Tim, a well traveled and highly experienced professional, is very modest about his achievements and endeavors. Both of them are friendly, trustworthy, open, intelligent, and well spoken.

On a personal note, I have been kinda experimenting with tasks versus relationship dimension that Mabel Miguel, professor of Organizational Behavior and Strategy talked about in her Leading and Managing Global Organizations class. Task focused individuals want to get things done and human relations are not that important in a context of an objective that must be accomplished. Relationship oriented individuals are emotionally driven and friendship and family members come first. Work is not the most important thing in their life. Every society have both types of people but generally, US and other western countries are considered to be task focused whereas Asia and Latin America tend to slide towards the relationship dimension.

I tend to emphasize on the human element but having lived in the US for 12 years have become increasingly task oriented. I am regarded as a Type A personality. Or was I always one? I am attempting to determine what is the limit to which one can be either and still perform at high-level. At work I have adopted a task oriented outlook. Work comes first. I don't mind chit-chatting but don't come to work to make friends. It doesn't mean I don't respect my coworkers however. At least I hope my coworkers don't find my aggressive approach to getting things done within a tight schedule disrespectful. I have kind of created a space between myself and others. On the other hand, in class I have adopted a relationship oriented outlook. Try to make sure everyone is doing okay, inject humor every so often (some get it, others don't - this is a story for some other day) and really try to get to know my classmates personally. Completing the assignments are important but I am relaxed about hitting all intermediate internal deadlines. And the work does get done. Assignments are submitted on time. It is an interesting learning experience. I would be lying if I said I could switch back and forth with ease. There is always a potential for a snafu. How much can you push people before you become a jerk? How much of friendship is okay without risking being taken lightly or exposed to "familiarity breeds contempt"? One spends 1/3 of their professional life at work. Isn't it important that that portion of life is meaningful as well? Idealistically speaking can anyone hit the midpoint and be the "cool guy whom everyone likes and gets things done"? If you believe you are truly in the midpoint, contact me.

Mabel and other global executives tell us that the ability to relate to people from diverse cultures, putting them at ease while working with you, and motivating them towards accomplishment of the objective is the key to success in this globalized world.

Anyway...on to Micro, Strategy, M&A, Negotiations, and Leadership. Next 7 months should be fun. The last residency will be in Asia (Shanghai and Hong Kong). More later....

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Behavioral Corporate Finance

Here one more interesting paper on Behavioral Corp Finance. Do managers always make rational decisions? Does group decision making have an amplification effect on irrational decision making?

Highly recommended!

Excerpt:

There are two key behavioral impediments to the process of value maximization, one internal to the firm and the other external. I call the first impediment behavioral costs. Behavioral costs tend to undermine value creation. They are the costs—or, alternatively, the loss in value—associated with errors that managers make because of cognitive imperfections and emotional influences. The second impediment stems from
behavioral errors by analysts and investors. These errors can create a wedge between fundamental values and market prices. Managers may then find themselves unsure of how to factor the errors of analysts and investors into their own decision-making.1

Consider first the behavioral obstacles to value creation that are internal to the firm. At present, academics and practitioners involved in issues of value-based management tend to focus exclusively on agency costs, which arise when the interests of agents (in this case, managers) are in conflict with the interests of the principals they have been engaged to serve (the owners or stockholders). Mechanisms that encourage agents to act in accordance with principals’ interests are said to be incentive compatible.

Proponents of value-based management emphasize that with properly designed incentives, managers will maximize the value of the firms for which they work. But behavioral costs can be quite large, and cannot be addressed though incentives alone. This is not to say that incentives are immaterial—on the contrary, incentives are of critical importance. The point, however, is that there are limits to what incentives can achieve. If employees have a distorted view of what is in their own self-interest, or if they have a mistaken view of what actions they need to take in order to maximize their self-interest, then incentive compatibility, although necessary for value maximization, will not be sufficient.

Now consider the behavioral obstacles to value creation that are external to the firm. Proponents of behavioral finance argue that risk is not priced in accordance with the CAPM and that market prices often deviate from fundamental values.
.....
The literature in behavioral decision-making suggests that people tend to be:
• loss averse;
• susceptible to framing or packaging that leads them to select inferior options;
• overconfident; and
• prone to confirmation bias.

Thursday, October 06, 2005

The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting

This is a really cool paper on the factors that drive decision making on performance measurement and voluntary disclosure.

Excerpts

Our results indicate that CFOs believe that earnings, not cash flows, are the key metric considered by outsiders. The two most important earnings benchmarks are quarterly earnings for the same quarter last year and the analyst consensus estimate.
...
The severe stock market reactions to small EPS misses can be explained as evidence that the market believes that most firms can “find the money” to hit earnings targets. Not being able to find one or two cents to hit the target might be interpreted as evidence of hidden problems at the firm. Additionally, if the
firm had previously guided analysts to the EPS target, then missing the target can indicate that a firm is managed poorly in the sense that it cannot accurately predict its own future.
...
An overwhelming majority of CFOs prefer smooth earnings (versus volatile earnings). Holding cash flows constant, volatile earnings are thought to be riskier than smooth earnings. Moreover, smooth earnings ease the analyst’s task of predicting future earnings... A surprising 78% of the surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings.
...
Therefore, many executives feel that they are choosing the lesser evil by sacrificing long-term value to avoid short-term turmoil. In other words, given the reality of severe market (over-) reactions to earnings misses, the executives might be making the optimal choice in the existing equilibrium. CFOs argue that the system (that is, financial market pressures and overreactions) encourages decisions that at times sacrifice long-term value to meet earnings targets.
...
Companies voluntarily disclose information to facilitate “clarity and understanding” to investors. Executives believe that lack of clarity, or a reputation for not consistently providing precise and accurate information, can lead to under-pricing of a firm’s stock. In short, disclosing reliable and precise information can reduce “information risk” about a company’s stock, which in turn reduces the required return.
...
Several other broad themes emerge from our analysis. Corporate executives pay a lot of attention to stock prices, personal and company reputation, and predictability. Agency concerns, such as internal and external job prospects, lead executives to focus on personal reputation to deliver earnings and run a stable firm.
...
Executives believe that the market sometimes misinterprets or overreacts to earnings and disclosure announcements; therefore, they work hard to meet market expectations so as not to raise investor suspicions or doubts about their firms’ underlying strength.

Importance of Reported Earnings

CFOs state that earnings are the most important financial metric to external constituents ... One hundred fifty nine of the respondents rank earnings as the number one metric, relative to 36 top ranks each for revenues and cash flows from operations.
...
The interviews highlight four explanations for the focus on EPS. First, the world is complex and the number of available financial metrics is enormous. Investors need a simple metric that summarizes corporate performance, that is easy to understand, and is relatively comparable across companies. EPS satisfies these criteria. Second, the EPS metric gets the broadest distribution and coverage by the media. Third, by focusing on one number, the analyst’s task of predicting future value is made somewhat easier. The analyst assimilates all the available information and summarizes it in one number: EPS. Fourth, analysts evaluate a firm’s progress based on whether a company hits consensus EPS. Investment banks can also assess analysts’ performance by evaluating how closely they predict the firm’s reported EPS.

Earnings Benchmark
The survey evidence reported in Table 3 indicates that all four metrics are important: (i) same quarter last year (85.1% agree or strongly agree that this metric is important); (ii) analyst consensus estimate (73.5%); (iii) reporting a profit (65.2%); and (iv) previous quarter EPS (54.2%).

Stock price driven motication
The survey evidence is strongly consistent with the importance of stock price motivations to meet or beat earnings benchmarks. An overwhelming 86.3% of the survey participants believe that meeting benchmarks builds credibility with the capital market

Stakeholder motivations
Bowen, Ducharme and Shores (1995) and Burgstahler and Dichev (1997) state that by managing earnings, firms are able to enhance their reputation with stakeholders, such as customers, suppliers and creditors, and hence get better terms of trade. A statistically significant majority of the respondents agree with the stakeholder story (Table 4, row 6). Conditional analyses show that the stakeholder motivation is
especially important for firms that are small, in the technology industry, dominated by insiders, young, and not profitable. Perhaps suppliers and customers need more reassurances about the firm’s future in such companies.

Employee Bonuses
Consistent with the survey evidence, interviewed CFOs view the compensation motivation as a second-order factor, at best, for exercising accounting discretion. They tell us that companies often have internal earnings targets (for the purpose of determining whether the executive earns a bonus) that exceed the external consensus target... Furthermore, several interviewed CFOs indicate that bonuses are a function of an internal “stretch goal,” which exceeds the internal “budget EPS,” which in turn exceeds the analyst consensus estimates.

Career Concerns
The interviews confirm that the desire to hit the earnings target appears to be driven less by short-run compensation motivations than by career concerns. Most CFOs feel that their inability to hit the earnings target is seen by the executive labor market as a “managerial failure.” Repeatedly failing to meet earnings benchmarks can inhibit the upward or intra-industry mobility of the CFO or CEO because the manager is seen either as an incompetent executive or a poor forecaster.

Consequences of failure to meet earnings benchmarks
Several CFOs argue that, “you have to start with the premise that every company manages earnings.”...The common belief is that a well-run and stable firm should be able to “produce the dollars” necessary to hit the earnings target, even in a year that is otherwise somewhat down...As one CFO put it, “if you see one cockroach, you immediately assume that there are hundreds behind the walls, even though you may have no proof that this is the case.” Corporations therefore have great incentive to avoid the “cockroach” of missing an earnings benchmark.

Corporate Finance - Evidence from the field

A very interesting paper on practise of corporate finance by companies of different sizes, industries, capital structure, and management profile

Excerpts

Capital Budgeting:

We find that CEOs with MBAs are more likely than non-MBA CEOs to use net present value - but the difference is only significant at the 10% level.
...
Firms that pay dividends are significantly more likely to use NPV and IRR than are firms that do not pay dividends. This result is also robust to our analysis by size. Public companies are significantly more likely to use NPV and IRR than are private corporations.
...
Our finding that payback is used by older, longer tenure CEOs without MBAs instead suggests that lack of sophistication is a driving factor behind the popularity of the payback criterion.
...
The influence of leverage on the earnings multiple approach is also robust across size (i.e., highly levered firms, whether they are large or small, frequently use earnings multiples).

Cost of Capital

CAPM is by far the most popular method of estimating the cost of equity capital: 73.5% of respondents always or almost always use the CAPM....The second and third most popular methods are average stock returns and a multibeta CAPM, respectively.
...
Large firms are much more likely to use the CAPM than are smaller firms ... Smaller firms are more inclined to use a cost of equity capital that is determined by "what investors tell us they require." CEOs with MBAs are more likely to use the single factor CAPM or CAPM with extra risk factors than are non-MBA CEOs; but the difference is only significant for the singlefactor CAPM.
...
Overall, the most important additional risk factors are: interest rate risk, exchange rate risk,business cycle risk, and inflation risk. For the calculation of discount rates, the most important factors are interest rate risk, size, inflation risk, and foreign exchange rate risk. For the calculation of cash flows, many firms incorporate the effects of commodity prices, GDP growth, inflation and foreign exchange risk.

Interestingly, few firms adjust either discount rates or cash flows for book-to-market, distress, or momentum risks. Only 13.1% of respondents consider the book-to-market ratio in either the cash flow or discount rate calculations. Momentum is only considered important by 11.1% of the respondents.

Capital Structure

The tax advantage is most important for large, regulated, and dividend-paying firms – companies that probably have high corporate tax rates and therefore large tax incentives to use debt.
...
When we ask firms directly about whether potential costs of distress affect their debt decisions, we find they are not very important (rating of 1.24 in Table 6), although they are relatively important among speculative-grade firms. However, firms are very concerned about their credit ratings (rating of 2.46, the second most important debt factor), which might be an indication of concern about distress costs. Among firms that have rated debt and for utilities, credit ratings are a very important determinant of debt policy.
...
We ask directly whether firms have an optimal or "target" debt-equity ratio. Nineteen
percent of the firms do not have a target debt ratio or target range (see Figure 1G). Another 37% have a flexible target, and 34% have a somewhat tight target or range. The remaining 10% have a very strict target debt ratio. These overall numbers provide mixed support for the notion that companies trade off costs and benefits to derive an optimal debt ratio....Targets are important if the CEO has short tenure or is young, and when the top three officers own less than 5% of the firm. Finally, the CFOs tell us that their companies issue equity to maintain a target debt-equity ratio (rating of 2.26; row e of Table 8), especially if their firm is highly levered (2.68), firm ownership is widely dispersed (2.64), or the CEO is young (2.41).

Flexibility: The most important item affecting corporate debt decisions is management's desire for "financial flexibility,"
...
Internal funds deficit: Having insufficient internal funds is a moderately important influence on the decision to issue debt...More small firms (rating of 2.30) than large firms (1.88) indicate that they use debt in the face of insufficient internal funds, which is consistent with the pecking-order if small firms suffer from larger asymmetric-information-related equity undervaluation.
...
Equity undervaluation: Firms are reluctant to issue common stock when they perceive that it is undervalued...Rather than issuing equity when they feel it is undervalued, many firms issue convertible debt instead: Equity undervaluation is the second most popular factor affecting convertible debt policy (rating of 2.34 in Table 10), a response particularly popular among growth firms (2.72).
...
Market timing is especially important for large firms (2.40), which implies that
companies are more likely to time interest rates when they have a large or sophisticated debt issuance department. We also find evidence that firms issue short-term debt in an effort to time market interest rates. CFOs issue short-term when they feel that short rates are low relative to long rates (1.89 in Table 11) or when they expect long-term rates to decline (1.78).
...
We find moderate evidence that firms issue equity to dilute the stock holdings of certain shareholders (rating of 2.14 in Table 8). This tactic is popular among speculative-grade companies (2.24); however, it is not related to the number of shares held by managers. We also ask if firms use debt to reduce the likelihood that the firm will become a takeover target. We find little support for this hypothesis (rating of 0.73 in Table 6).
...
Among the 31% of respondents who seriously considered issuing foreign debt, the most popular reason they did so is to provide a natural hedge against foreign currency devaluation (mean rating of 3.15 in Table 7). Providing a natural hedge is most important for public firms (3.21) with large foreign exposure (3.34). The second most important factor affecting the use of foreign debt is keeping the source close to the use of funds (rating of 2.67), especially for small (3.09), manufacturing firms (2.92).
...
The most popular explanation of how firms choose between short- and long-term debt is that they match debt maturity with asset life (rating of 2.60 in Table 11). Maturity-matching is most important for small (2.69), private (2.85) firms.
...
Fourteen firms write that they choose debt to minimize their WACC
...
Among the 38% of firms that seriously considered issuing common equity during the sample period, earnings dilution is the most important concern affecting their decision...EPS dilution is a big concern among regulated companies (3.60), even though in many cases the regulatory process ensures that utilities earn their required cost of capital, implying that EPS dilution should not affect share price. Concern about EPS dilution is strong among large (3.12), dividend-paying firms (3.06).
...
We ask the executives whether the ability to call or force conversion is an important feature affecting convertible debt policy. Among the one-in-five firms that seriously considered issuing convertible debt, there is moderate evidence that executives like convertibles because of the ability to call or force conversion (rating of 2.29 in Table 10).

Source:
Graham, John R. and Harvey, Campbell R., "The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: Evidence from the Field" (December 1999). AFA 2001 New Orleans; Duke University Working Paper. http://ssrn.com/abstract=220251

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Relating Marketing, Economics, Accounting, and Strategy

As I read the materials from the following links, the reinforcing and cumulative nature of the OneMBA curriculum becomes very obvious.

Industry Analysis : The Fundemantals
Excerpt-
Cost Conditions: Scale Economies and the Ratio of Fixed to Variable Costs
When excess capacity causes price competition, how low will prices go? The key factor is cost structure. Where fixed costs are high relative to variable costs, firms will take on marginal business at any price that covers variable costs. The consequences for profitability can be disastrous. Between 2001 and 2003, the total losses of the US airline industry exceeded the cumulative profits earned during the entire previous history of the industry. The willingness of airlines to offer heavily discounted tickets on flights with low bookings reflects the very low variable costs of filling empty seats. The devastating impact of excess capacity on profitability in petrochemicals, tires, steel, and semiconductors is a result of high fixed costs in these businesses and the willingness of firms to accept additional business at any price that covers variable costs.
.....
Industries and Markets: The first issue is clarifying what we mean by the term “industry.” Economists define an industry as a group of firms that supplies a market. Hence, a close correspondence exists between markets and industries. So, what’s the difference between analyzing industry structure and analyzing market structure? The principal difference is that industry analysis – notably Five Forces analysis – looks at industry profitability being determined by competition in two markets: product markets and input markets. Everyday usage makes a bigger distinction between industries and markets. Typically, industry is identified with relatively broad sectors, while markets refer to specific products. Thus, the firms within the packaging industry compete in many distinct product markets – glass containers, steel cans, aluminum cans, paper cartons, plastic containers, and so on.
Source: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/grant/pdfs/CSA5eC03.pdf

Concentration ratio:
Excerpt-
Some examples of the four-firm concentration ratio include:

* Traditional agriculture: Less than 5 percent
* Sheet metal: 9 percent
* Asphalt paving: 15 percent
* Typesetting: 16 percent
* Publishing: 23 percent
* Soap and detergents: 63 percent
* Men's slacks: 75 percent
* Aircraft: 79 percent
* Greeting cards: 84 percent
* Cigarettes: 93 percent
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentration_ratio

Herfindahl index:
Excerpt-
In economics, the Herfindahl index is a measure of the size of firms in relationship to the industry and an indicator of the amount of competition among them. It is defined as the sum of the squares of the market shares of each individual firm. As such, it can range from 0 to 10,000, moving from a very large amount of very small firms to a single monopolistic producer. Decreases in the Herfindahl index generally indicate a loss of pricing power and an increase in competition, whereas increases imply the opposite.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herfindahl_index

Industrial Concentration:
Excerpt-
Merger and Antitrust Policy: Economists now understand that industrial concentration is unlikely to cause collusion and that concentration is a natural result of economies of scale and successful competition. This new understanding is now reflected in U.S. antitrust laws. Whereas antitrust officials used to disallow mergers that gave the top four firms a market share of less than 40 percent, they now often approve mergers that would give the top four firms a market share of over 70 percent. The merger of tire producers Michelin and Goodrich is one example. Charles F. Rule, formerly the Reagan administration's chief antitrust official, summed it up: "In the Sixties and Seventies [the evaluation of proposed mergers] was all based on concentration. In the Seventies, as an underpinning, it was wiped out. There was a problem with just using concentration. [In the Eighties], we used it as a screen to tell us when to look further, say, into market operations, price discrimination, previous market share and loss of entry into the market by competitors."
Source: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/IndustrialConcentration.html

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

GE's Compensation for the CEO

I happen to end up on GE's governance web page during my routine stroll down the Internet avenue and was very pleasantly surprised to see the following. Very encouraging!!

Source: http://www.ge.com/en/citizenship/governance/board/committees/devcomp/sept03.htm

Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt was granted Performance Share Units (PSUs) in lieu of stock options and restricted stock units. These Performance Share Units are intended to recognize the unique position of the GE CEO. The board believes that the CEO of GE needs no retention compensation, and that his or her equity compensation should be focused entirely on performance and alignment with investors.

PSUs may vest at the end of five years (2007); half of the PSUs will convert into shares of GE stock only if GE's cash flow from operating activities has grown an average of 10% or more per year over the period. The remaining PSUs will convert only if GE's total shareowner return meets or exceeds that of the S&P 500 over the period. If one or both performance criteria are not met, the associated PSUs will be cancelled. During the performance period, Mr. Immelt will receive quarterly cash payments on each PSU equal to GE's quarterly per-share dividend.

Linking 50% of Mr. Immelt's equity compensation directly to cash generation performance of the Company underscores GE's commitment to strong operating discipline, our triple-A ratings, and the GE dividend. The remaining 50% of the equity compensation is based solely on successfully delivering to GE's shareholders total returns equal to or better than the broader market.

The 2003 grant of 250,000 Performance Share Units represents a present value of approximately $7.5 million if both performance criteria are met. The full value of the grant is at risk based on GE and GE stock performance. By comparison, in 2002 Mr. Immelt's annual equity grant was 1 million stock options, vesting in equal parts over 5 years, with an estimated present value of $8.4 million (see 2002 proxy statement).

With the grant, more than 60% of Mr. Immelt's compensation is fully at risk and linked to performance measures that are directly aligned with long-term investor interests.

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Pre-MBA Blues!!

Monday, April 19th 2004: Visited Leesburg, VA last weekend to attend an Information Session on OneMBA at Lansdowne Resort and for admissions interview with Angela Dickerson. It was a short trip but very eventful. It started with minor bumps but ended rather nicely. Upon checking in I was given a key to room 409, which wouldn’t work. The girls next door checking in at the same time were in a party mood. The reception desk next gave me a key to room 204. It worked! But I was a bit surprised to see the suite cases on the floor. Took a second for me to realize that they had given me a key to an occupied room. I was back at the reception desk again. I was given personal assurance that this time it would work. I checked in room 505 successfully. Relaxed for a little while and than decided to go to the bar to eat something. I was in a dilemma about what to drink since I had made a rather impromptu decision on Dec 31 to not drink for a year. Sitting in bar alone without any drinks was going to be quite awkward for me so I ordered a few martinis and had a crab cake sandwich. Heck with the new year resolution. Aren’t they made to be broken any way? It was good. While I was having my drinks I decided to do some detective work on the students who were currently attended OneMBA program there so I started a conversation with the waitress. I asked her how frequently they showed up at the bar? How much did they drink? Did they ever create trouble or were unpleasant? Did they spend a lot of time there? The purpose behind this was to understand (1) night life (2) student behavior. She didn’t have anything negative to say. At mid night I woke up to find myself a little sweaty and itchy. The heat was on and I had hives on my body. I switch to A/C, drank water and lay there till I fell a sleep again. I felt fine in the morning. The hives had almost disappeared. Was it the seafood? I guess I will never know.Next morning while dressing up for the session I realized that my maroon matching belt was missing. So after a bit of panic I decided to go with black belt and shoes. Thank god I had wore business casuals the day before. The information session was nice. Angela was very pleasant. It was nice to put a face to her voice, which sounded a little different since she was nursing a cold. She and Anne Marie Summers, director of the Weekend MBA program at KFBS were very helpful to me when I was trying to decide on the program. After doing all the research in the world and clicking on every link on the Internet that led me to OneMBA I had decided to pursue that program. I think she was happy to see me there as well.The lunch with participants from class of 2004 was nice. Appreciated their perspective of the program since they were the first class, the risk takers. The interview later at 2:00 PM with Angela went fine as well. Between lunch and the interview I had the opportunity to have a sales manager of the resort give me tour of the facility. I narrated my experience with check-in to him and he was kind enough to offer me a free
certificate of spa use for my wife and a free upgrade to a suite next time I was there. Pretty cool I say. It put a smile on my wife’s face. I walked away feeling good about my chances of getting admissions in to the program that evening. Drive home was good too.

Monday, April 26th 2004: Last weekend was quite eventful. Karin had given me the good news on Friday the 23rd that she was pregnant with our second child. If every thing goes okay, we may have our second baby before the year ends. I received a call from Angela on Saturday the 24th at 6:23 PM to confirm my admissions in the OneMBA program for the class of 2006. It was so exciting. My parents are visiting us this week so it was nice to share the news with them in person. My mom has mixed feels about this. She hasn’t received a very positive feedback from others in the Indian community who has attempted to get a part-time or an executive MBA. My father gave me a thumbs-up and my wife a nice kiss. Tonight we celebrate this milestone. My brother who is currently in India exchanged a rupee on 25th. Around 250 people were present for that ceremony. We all wished we could be there for him on such an important day of his life. He went there to gain new IT skills and ended up finding a nice girl to marry as well. The wedding will be next year in the US. I have promised my father to help him financially as much as I can and give my brother and his wife a honeymoon package as their wedding gift. Traditionally the parents of the groom do this. So I guess in theory I spend $93,000 ($85K for the MBA, $5K for brother’s wedding, $3K for preparing for the second child) last weekend.

Tuesday, April 27th 2004: Woke up around 3:30 AM abruptly and couldn’t go back to sleep. The thoughts of financing my MBA and Akhil’s wedding broke the mental silence. The brain was active again. Decided to go down stairs and surf the net and research on federal loans. Couldn’t find anywhere what an academic year meant from a borrowing perspective. Was starting the program in 2004 and completing in 2006 two academic years or three? Stafford gives $8500 in subsidized and $10,000 in unsubsidized loans annually. I bet it meant two. Would have liked it to be three. I couldn’t believe I was thinking that may be I should defer my admissions by a year to take care of the expenses related with birth of our second child and wedding in the family. Decided to go to work really early. May be I don’t need to buy a $2000 laptop. I will use the company laptop but will have to convince RMES of its use in a wireless environment. Also, I should seriously think about using ROTH IRA for my tuition expenses. But I was saving for Natalie’s education. Is it a right thing to do?

10:40 AM: I feel much better now. I was able to confirm (1) from ED that 2004-2006 is two academic years (2) I can take a distribution from my IRA for postsecondary education without 10% penalty (3) the aid can be borrowed for only the cost of the program and not for travel and meals. This means I will be able to cover substantial amount ($36,000 as of today in the account minus taxes) of tuition from my rollover IRA and I won’t have to touch my ROTH IRA. The out-of-pocket, company reimbursements and Stafford loans will cover my expenses so I won’t have to take a private loan. It looks like I will be able to manage all the expenses, without significantly affecting some of the family projects, after all. However, the challenge is going to be to recoup my costs at the rate faster than it would have grown in my IRA. MBA is an investment after all. Bring it on!

Thursday, April 29th 2004: I have confirmed that all of the money in the IRA has been put into a Treasury Money Market fund so that I can retain its value between now and the time I have to pay the fees.

Monday, May 3rd 2004: Faxed my acceptance form and paid the enrollment deposit of $750 via credit card. Spent a good deal of time yesterday trying to “figure out” how to use the combo of credit cards/loans/cash to my best advantage when paying the tuitions. The good news is that American Airlines will pretty much take me to all of my global residencies so I don’t need to get new credit cards to manage frequent flyer miles. However, I may not choose to fly AA if bunch of my teammates are flying KLM to Amsterdam next March. Anyways, it is too early to worry about this. Planning for it may not be a bad idea however.

Thursday, May 6th 2004: Did the first ultra sound for Karin’s second pregnancy. Everything looks good. Karin’s doc confirmed that there is only one baby so that certainly helps us. Karin and I were worried that next time we may have twins or more because of fertility drugs. While all the babies would have been welcomed with equal love and joy, it is will make life a whole lot simpler for us. Karin is a twin and so is her father. The due date is 27th of Dec. Fortunately there are no classes that time around. The class in Dec starts on the 10th in Chapel Hill. If she goes in a month early like last time it would be around thanksgiving and fortunately the class in Nov is on 19th. But I guess anything can happen after 8th month so I will have to be prepared for it and hopefully so will my teammates.

Friday, May 7th 2004: Spoke to Michael McDuffy about student aid. He confirmed that he had all the information necessary and would contact me next week if more was needed. Otherwise I should expect to hear from him in couple of weeks about the outcome of the loan application. I felt that absence of friendliness that I have felt from other staff at UNC. May be I caught him at the wrong time.

11:00 AM – Received the promised certificate from Lansdowne Resort National Sales Manager Greg Spiller for a free upgrade to suite, spa and golf. I wondered if he would keep his word. He did and I am impressed.

Friday, May 14th 2004: Received a Notice of Incomplete Application from Student Aid office yesterday. I was told that I needed to provide more information like Student’s Expected Income, Selective Service, Postsecondary School Attendance, and Graduate Enrollment form. At first I freaked out because the notice at the end said that since all this information wasn’t available and that I applied after March 1st deadline, the chances are that I would get the funds, if available, after the school year starts. So I downloaded all the forms as requested from the website and completed them. Called Michael McDuffy this morning and left him a voice mail to call me back as I had questions about the notice. Didn’t hear back from him in couple of hours so I figured he was busy and I called the Student Aid office. A nice lady Megan helped me out. I was able to get the forms faxed to their office and she confirmed that they had received everything they asked for and I should expect to hear from them within two weeks. I hope not to hear back from them on anything else that is missing.

Wednesday, June 2nd, 2004: Received another notice of incomplete application on Saturday the 28th. This time it asked for a documented confirmation whether my company would be paying for tuition or not. Called the office of Student Aid to inquire
why this was necessary as it was already mentioned in my initial application and why it wasn’t brought to my attention the first time a similar notice was sent. I was told that the first notice is customary and everybody gets it. I wonder why they call it “notice of incomplete application” if it really is “notice for additional information”? And make it sound as if the incomplete application was my fault. Faxed my company’s Educational Assistance Program policy on June 1st. Received immediate confirmation that faxed has been delivered successfully. Left message for Michael McDuffy on June 2nd to confirm the same.

3:15 PM – No response from Michael McDuffy. Called the Student Aid Office again to confirm if they had received the fax. Spoke to Lauran. She asked to resend the fax. Done. Called Lauran to confirm. She asked to confirm with Michael McDuffy if I don’t see a change in status of my application online by Friday.

Thursday, June 3rd, 2004: Using Student Central confirmed that the Office of Student Aid has received my fax and it is being reviewed. I will be contacted by mail if anything else is missing. I wonder what will it be?

Tuesday, June 8th 2004: Received in mail a note from CFI, the lender, about the need to sign Master Promissory Note and take counseling for the first time applicants so that we can understand our rights and obligations. Can’t believe they made me a take a test after the counseling session. The signed MPN is in the mail today.

Wednesday, June 16th 2004: Faxed the authorization form to cashiers office yesterday. This will allow them to use aid for all outstanding expenses. Lauran from the Student Aid’s office mentioned that I should do nothing with the form asking for details of outside tuition help if none was expected.

Friday, July 23rd 2004: Yesterday I moved 32% of my 401K money from a mutual fund to a managed income fund. All the news and articles about possibility of attacks in US has freaked me out a little bit. I was just done recovering my losses from the crash. Don’t want to go through that again. All new contributions go exclusively to a managed income fund. With my financial commitments, I want to make sure that for next couple of years I be careful. I also worked on a personality profile that Angela had send all of us to complete and send it back before July 31st. Its in the mail today. Got one more to do by end of July for the class. I received a letter from the US Airways that there was a slight change to my reservation. The return flight will be starting an hour early at 12:25 PM on 25th of Sept. I would have to miss some of the classes and speakers. Angela felt that it would be okay if I had to leave a little early. I personally felt that it would set a wrong tempo for the rest of the program so I decided to first take the next non-stop flight at 7:50 PM. I would find something to do at the airport. Upon talking with US Airways reservation staff I decided to use another option and that was to take a flight at 1:55 PM via Pittsburg. I still have my options open so I may change it back to the later non-stop one. On 21st, I finally bought a 200X laptop for the program from Gateway for $1441.11 at roughly 22% discount. The configuration I had chosen would have cost me $1847.57 How about that for a customer loyalty discount? Plus I felt that they were quite accommodating towards my concerns on how the order was executed.

Thursday, July 29th 2004: I received my laptop yesterday. It is pretty cool. Had to call back Gateway to confirm my credit for the “no shipping cost” deal as well as change of service plan from standard to 3 year value plus.

Monday, August 2nd 2004: Read over the weekend about a new cheap no-frills airline, Independence Air, starting from Port Columbus to Washington Dulles on August 15th. Coincidentally it is also India’s Independence Day. For first purchase I would get $25 off. I called US airways and cancelled my reservations. Booked on Independence instead for $113.20, saving me $142. I will get ground transportation from IAD to the Opening week venue. The return flight won’t start until 4:00 PM so I have plenty of time to complete my activities on 25th.

What's due in September?

The schedule for What's Due has been uploaded at http://www.myonemba.com

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Interesting links and references

Marketing:

The Best Global Brands : http://biz.yahoo.com/special/brand05.html

The Brand Channel : http://www.brandchannel.com

 

Macro-economics:

Economic Data - FRED® : http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

 

Leadership:

How Jack Welch Runs GE (dated) : http://www.businessweek.com/1998/23/b3581001.htm

It Takes Uncommon Sense To Be a Great Leader : http://www.careerjournal.com/reports/bosstalk/?home_bricks

 

Ops:

Operations Management Center : http://www.mhhe.com/omc/arts-frames.htm

 

Strategy:

Hypercompetition and Apple : http://www.fool.com/community/pod/2002/020305.htm

Strategy – Global Business : http://www.themanager.org/Knowledgebase/Strategy/Global.htm

Global Career:

Reconsider Your Resume Before Heading Overseas : http://www.collegejournal.com/globalcareers/newstrends/20010920-thompson.html

Coming Home Is Tough After Working Overseas : http://www.collegejournal.com/globalcareers/newstrends/20040818-kissel.html

 

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